The problem of bullwhip effect

It sounds so easy but it still occurs: bad information flow in a supply chain can cause the bullwhip effect.

So how is that possible:

• supply chains are often very complex
• not a real chain structure 
• more or less a net
• informations are often not provided for the whole supply chain
• the communication just happens between direct partners of the supply chain
• calculations for stock and demandmanagement are usually based on the partners only
• as a result: small changes in demand on consumer side can lead to big changes on consumer side
• I think a proper word for that is "puffing"
• actually this is just theory
• problems occure in the middle of the supply chain
• so the changes for the warehouses and other facilities in between are relatively high
• changes on producer site are relatively small
• the next step: is this working the other way around? "The reverse bullwhip effect!"

That is what I am going to find out and prove during my thesis ;)

Ah Huat

The Bullwhip Effect

The Bullwhip Effect (or Whiplash Effect) is an observed phenomenon in forecast-driven distribution channels. The concept has its roots in J Forrester's Industrial Dynamics (1961) and thus it is also known as the Forrester Effect. Since the oscillating demand magnification upstream a supply chain reminds someone of a cracking whip it became famous as the Bullwhip Effect. ("Bullwhip effect; Wikipedia)

Can you imagine writing a thesis about this? 50 pages? Well if you would have asked me that question a few months ago I would have said "no" for sure! Now I am scared that 50 pages are not enough...

I think I will put all my thoughts about my thesis here to share with the rest of the world and see if there might be any ideas or comments that might give new conclusions! Will start by tomorrow after consultation with my lecturer.

Ah Huat

Where is the blizzard?

This morning I woke up just to check if the weather forecast was accurate. Well all I can say is that it is snowing and that it's more windy than usual but you can't consider this as a blizzard.

Even if the weather is not as bad I won't risk leaving the house and spend my day with studying for my upcoming exams. At least time is passing really fast these days!

Ah Huat

writing an essay

I know I should be done with the essay already but over christmas the time passed too fast and now I am still writing about cultural competence between germans and chinese.
After reading three books about this topic I think I have a good knowledge but I am not able to write proper sentences these days. I thought I would be done by tonight but when I read the essay I realized that I wrote on different levels and that the last part does not sound professional at all. At least I have got a good base to edit the essay now...

By the way I was never a big fan of Apple products but if someone comes along to give me an iPhone or Macbook I would not deny :)

Ah Huat

very busy

Today I realised how the next 19 days will look like:

• writing an essay
• research for Bachelor Thesis
• studying for final exams
• applying for jobs
• and last but not least: swimming!

Looking forward to the 21st of January :D (Actually it is the 22nd)

Ah Huat

long time no see :(

Today I had to send my girlfriend to the airport after some nice days during christmas and new year. I did not expect to be happy but I feel so sad and lonely now that I try to distract me with anything that comes to my mind (even blogging :D)! It is just 20 days till I can see her again.

Maybe I will be able to write regular entries again now :) I think that is a very good resolution for 2010 right?

Ah Huat

so dark and an explanation

Today I had a lesson from 3:45om till 5:15 pm and when I left my classroom I thought it was very late in the evening because it was dark already. I don't like that the sun is setting so early during winter. Is there a way to escape? How about holidays? ;) Should start checking out flights then...

Dönerpizza:
To explain what this pizza is about you have to know what a Döner is: It is just Kebab (some people know it as doner)!
So the Dönerpizza is a combination of italian and turkish food including cheese and a lot of meat. Can taste pretty nice if the ingredients are good but if you ask me: Do not use Tzatziki on the pizza because it destroys the flavour.

Ah Huat

time flies

Today I want to try something new. I just give bulletpoints what was interesting during my day ;)

• hangover
• martial arts
• phad thai
• nice two hours on skype
• nazi zombies
• dönerpizza with tzatziki
• maple story :D

That was my day...

Ah Huat

Suicide and the media

Recently the german media was shocked by the suicide of a german soccerplayer. Everyone seems to empathyze with a person who did something other people do as well but this time it was someone who has media attention. Usually people would connect the suicide with something bad but this time it is just sad that a person killed himself.
Why are people thinking like that? What is with his family? What is with the people who were present? What is with all the people who do not get any attention even if they commit suicide?
No one seems to care but at least the media has something to report.
Just now I saw an article about a person who might have killed himself because of the suicide of the soccerplayer. So what happened? The media condemns him...
Is that fair? Well I don't think so!

Ah Huat

Nothing much to talk about

I was slightly busy last week and I was too lazy to blog as well. Additionally to that there is nothing much going on these days beside university and some stuff in my mind.

The most important thing is probably writing my bachelor thesis in the beginning of next year. My choice right now is: "The effect of ressource scarcity on the supply chain management"! Well I will have a talk with my lecturer next week and see what he is thinking about this topic.

Another thing is the discussion about swine flu in the media. I am thinking about getting a jab next week. I am really not sure what to do but since I do not have to pay anything and I am not afraid of side effects I think I should just do it right? -.-

Well that is it for today and thanks to everyone who is visiting my website... The number of visitors is increasing every day!

Ah Huat